================================================================ SPACE LAUNCH REPORT ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS ================================================================ by Ed Kyle as of December 29, 2010 ================================================================ Top active space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits. ================================================================ Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates Rate Rate* Succes Fail ================================================================ Delta 2 146 148 .99 .98 93 1/17/97 1989- Soyuz-U 733 753 .97 .97 50 10/15/02 1973- STS 129 132 .98 .97 19(A) 2/1/03 1981- Soyuz-FG 24 24 1.00 .96 24 None 2001- CZ-4(A/B/C) 22 22 1.00 .96 22 None 1988- Kosmos 3M 423 446 .95 .95 22 11/20/00 1964- CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM) 32 33 .97 .94 32 11/5/74 1974- CZ-2D 14 14 1.00 .94 14 None 1993- Ariane 5-ECA 28 29 .97 .94 28 12/11/02 2002- Molniya M 277 296 .94 .93 4 6/21/05 1963-2010 Atlas 5 22 23 .96 .92 13 6/15/07 2002- Proton-K/DM-2 100 108 .93 .92 14 10/27/99 1982- Delta 4M(+) 10 10 1.00 .92 10 None 2002- Proton-M/Briz-M 40 43 .93 .91 21 03/14/08 2001- Soyuz FG/Fregat 9 9 1.00 .91 9 None 2003- Minotaur 1 8 8 1.00 .90 8 None 2000- H-2A 17 18 .94 .90 12 11/29/03 2001- Dnepr 15 16 .94 .89 9 7/26/06 1999- CZ-2F 7 7 1.00 .89 7 None 1999- Rokot/Briz/K(M) 14 15 .93 .88 7 10/8/05 1994- CZ-3/3A 29 32 .91 .88 19 8/18/96 1984- Proton-M/DM-2 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 2007- Proton-K/17S40 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1997- Zenit 3SL/DMSL 27 30 .90 .88 6 1/30/07 1999- Proton-K 26 29+ .90 .87 9 11/29/86 1968- CZ-3B/3C 17 19 .89 .86 5 8/31/09 1996- Pegasus (H/XL) 35 40 .88 .86 26 11/4/96 1991- Ariane 5G(+,S) 22 25 .88 .85 15 7/12/01 1996- PSLV 15 17 .88 .84 13 9/29/97 1993- Soyuz-U/Fregat 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2000- START(-1) 6 7 .86 .78 5 3/28/95 1993- Zenit 2(M) 29 37 .78 .77 6 9/9/98 1985- Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2006- Falcon 9 2 2 1.00 .75 1 None 2010- Shtil' 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 1998- Minotaur 4 2 2++ 1.00 .67 2 None 2010- Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 4 5# .80 .71 2 5/21/09 2006- Taurus (XL) 6 8 .75 .70 0 2/24/09 1994- Delta IV-H 3 4 .75 .67 3 12/21/04 2004- Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 3 4 .75 .67 3(B) 4/28/08 2008- Ariane 5ES 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2008- H-2B 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2009- Soyuz 2-1b 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2008- Shavit(-1,-2) 6 9 .67 .64 2 9/6/04 1988- Safir 1 2 .50 .50 1 8/16/08 2008- Falcon 1 2 5 .40 .43 2 8/3/08 2006- GSLV 2 7 .29 .33 0 12/25/10 2001- Proton-M/DM-03 0 1 .00 .33 0 12/5/10 2010- Volna 0 1 .00 .33 0 6/21/05 2005- KSLV-1 (Angara) 0 2 .00 .25 0 6/10/10 2009- Unha 2 (TD-2) 0 2 .00 .25 0 4/5/09 2006- ================================================================ * First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted probability of success for next launch attempt (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the number of successful events and n is the number of trials. # Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test flight performed in 2004. + Does not include one successful suborbital Proton-K test flight performed in 1970. ++Does not include one successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite flight in 2010. (A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of damage suffered during launch phase. (B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and 0.7 deg unplanned inclination. Amos 3 reportedly lost two to three years of 18 year design life. ================================================================ =============================================================== SPACE LAUNCH REPORT RECENTLY RETIRED LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS ================================================================ by Ed Kyle ================================================================ Recently retired space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits. ================================================================ Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates Rate Rate* Succes Fail ================================================================ Atlas 2/2AS 63 63 1.00 .98 63 None 1991-2004 Tsyklon 2 104 105 .99 .98 92 4/25/73 1967-2006 Ariane 4 113 116 .97 .97 74 12/11/94 1988-2003 Titan 2 17 17# 1.00 .95 17 None 1964-2003 Proton-K/DM-2M 40 42 .95 .93 7 11/25/02 1994-2006 Tsyklon 3 114 122 .93 .93 1 12/24/04 1977-2009 Atlas 3(A/B) 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 2000-2005 Soyuz-U/Ikar 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1999-1999 Titan 4B 15 17 .88 .84 12 4/30/99 1997-2005 Titan 2(Star) 6 7% .86 .78 6 10/5/93 1964-2003 M-5 6 7 .86 .78 4 2/10/00 1997-2006 Proton-K/Briz-M 3 4 .75 .67 3 7/5/99 1999-2003 ================================================================ #Includes 11 orbital Gemini Titan 2 and 6 Titan 23G missions. %Seven Titan 23G flights that flew suborbital profiles with Star 37 solid rocket motors providing the final orbital velocity increment. The single failure listed here involved the Star 37 stage. 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