================================================================ SPACE LAUNCH REPORT ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS ================================================================ by Ed Kyle as of December 30, 2009 ================================================================ Top active space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits. ================================================================ Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates Rate Rate* Succes Fail ================================================================ Tsyklon 2 104 105 .99 .98 92 4/25/73 1967- Delta 2 145 147 .99 .98 92 1/17/97 1989- Soyuz-U 727 747 .97 .97 44 10/15/02 1973- STS 126 129 .97 .97 16(A) 2/1/03 1981- Soyuz-FG 20 20 1.00 .95 20 None 2001- CZ-4(A/B/C) 18 18 1.00 .95 18 None 1988- Kosmos 3M 422 445 .95 .95 21 11/20/00 1964- CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM) 32 33 .97 .94 32 11/5/74 1974- Molniya M 276 295 .94 .93 3 6/21/05 1963- Proton-K/DM-2M 40 42 .95 .93 7 11/25/02 1994- CZ-2D 11 11 1.00 .92 11 None 1993- Ariane 5-ECA 22 23 .96 .92 22 12/11/02 2002- Proton-K/DM-2 100 108 .93 .92 14 10/27/99 1982- Soyuz FG/Fregat 9 9 1.00 .91 9 None 2003- Atlas 5 18 19 .95 .90 9 6/15/07 2002- Delta IV-M 8 8 1.00 .90 8 None 2002- Minotaur 1 8 8 1.00 .90 8 None 2000- CZ-2F 7 7 1.00 .89 7 None 1999- H-2A 15 16 .94 .89 10 11/29/03 2001- Proton-M/Briz-M 31 34 .91 .89 12 03/14/08 2001- Proton-K/17S40 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1997- Zenit 3SL/DMSL 27 30 .90 .88 6 1/30/07 1999- Proton-K 26 29+ .90 .87 9 11/29/86 1968- CZ-3/3A 26 29 .90 .87 16 8/18/96 1984- Dnepr 12 13 .92 .87 6 7/26/06 1999- Rokot/Briz/K(M) 12 13 .92 .87 5 10/8/05 1994- Pegasus (H/XL) 35 40 .88 .86 26 11/4/96 1991- Ariane 5G(+,S) 22 25 .88 .85 15 7/12/01 1996- Soyuz-U/Fregat 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2000- Proton-M/DM-2 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2007- PSLV 14 16 .88 .83 12 9/29/97 1993- CZ-3B/3C 12 14 .86 .81 0 8/31/09 1996- START(-1) 6 7 .86 .78 5 3/28/95 1993- Zenit 2(M) 29 37 .78 .77 6 9/9/98 1985- Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2006- Shtil' 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 1998- Taurus (XL) 6 8 .75 .70 0 2/24/09 1994- Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 3 4 .75 .67 3(B) 4/28/08 2008- Ariane 5ES 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2008- H-2B 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2009- Soyuz 2-1b 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2008- Delta IV-H 2 3 .67 .60 2 12/21/04 2004- Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 2 3# .67 .60 0 5/21/09 2006- Shavit(-1) 5 8 .63 .60 1 9/6/04 1988- Safir 1 2 .50 .50 1 8/16/08 2008- Falcon 1 2 5 .40 .43 2 8/3/08 2006- GSLV 2 5 .40 .43 0 9/2/07 2001- KSLV-1 (Angara) 0 1 .00 .33 0 8/25/09 2009- Volna 0 1 .00 .33 0 6/21/05 2005- Unha 2 (TD-2) 0 2 .00 .25 0 4/5/09 2006- ================================================================ * First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted probability of success for next launch attempt (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the number of successful events and n is the number of trials. # Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test flight performed in 2004. + Does not include one successful suborbital Proton-K test flight performed in 1970. (A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of damage suffered during launch phase. (B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and 0.7 deg unplanned inclination. Amos 3 reportedly lost two to three years of 18 year design life. ================================================================ =============================================================== SPACE LAUNCH REPORT RECENTLY RETIRED LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS ================================================================ by Ed Kyle as of October 29, 2009 ================================================================ Recently retired space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits. ================================================================ Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates Rate Rate* Succes Fail ================================================================ Atlas 2/2AS 63 63 1.00 .98 63 None 1991-2004 Ariane 4 113 116 .97 .97 74 12/11/94 1988-2003 Titan 2 17 17# 1.00 .95 17 None 1964-2003 Tsyklon 3 114 122 .93 .93 1 12/24/04 1977-2009 Atlas 3(A/B) 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 2000-2005 Soyuz-U/Ikar 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1999-1999 Titan 4B 15 17 .88 .84 12 4/30/99 1997-2005 Titan 2(Star) 6 7% .86 .78 6 10/5/93 1964-2003 M-5 6 7 .86 .78 4 2/10/00 1997-2006 Proton-K/Briz-M 3 4 .75 .67 3 7/5/99 1999-2003 ================================================================ #Includes 11 orbital Gemini Titan 2 and 6 Titan 23G missions. %Seven Titan 23G flights that flew suborbital profiles with Star 37 solid rocket motors providing the final orbital velocity increment. The single failure listed here involved the Star 37 stage. Use browser return arrow to go back to: http://www.geocities.com/launchreport/slr.html