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F9-46 (SpaceX) 2018 Space Launch Report

Updated October 20, 2018

2018 Launch Vehicle Standings
2018 Launch Site/Country Standings
Launch Vehicle by Success Rate
2018 Orbital Launch Log
2018 Suborbital Launch Log
Space Launch Forecast

Falcon 9 v1.2 F9-46 with the B1043 first stage opened the 2018 orbital launch year with the launch of mysterious Zuma from Cape Canaveral SLC 40 on January 8.    


2018 LAUNCH STATS
========================================================
             SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

       2018 LAUNCH VEHICLE/SITE STATISTICS
========================================================
       by Ed Kyle      as of October 20, 2018
========================================================

       YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY

Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number 
of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker 
and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker.  
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods 
less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include 
heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape 
trajectories.

=========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
=========================================================
CZ (DF-5)            25(0)       14(0)  11(0)    -
Falcon 9             16(0)        8(0)   8(0)    -
R-7                   8(1)        6(1)   2(0)    -
Atlas 5               5(0)         -     4(0)   1(0)
Ariane 5              5(1)         -     4(1)   1(0)
PSLV                  3(0)        2(0)   1(0)    -
H-2A                  2(0)        2(0)    -      -
CZ-11                 2(0)        2(0)    -      -
Delta 4 Heavy         1(0)         -      -     1(0)
Proton                1(0)         -     1(0)    -
Falcon Heavy          1(0)         -      -     1(0)
H-2B                  1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Delta 4M              1(0)        1(0)    -      -
GSLV                  1(0)         -     1(0)    -
Soyuz 2-1v            1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Antares               1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Delta 2               1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Vega                  1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Rokot/Briz KM         1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Enhanced Epsilon      1(0)        1(0)    -      -
KZ-1A                 1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Electron              1(0)        1(0)    -      -
SS-520                1(0)        1(0)    -      -
---------------------------------------------------------
Total                81(2)       45(1)  32(1)   4(0)      

Antares Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Antares 230           1(0)        1(0)    -      -
------------------------------------------------------------

Ariane 5 Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Ariane 5ECA           4(1)         -     3(1)   1(0)
Ariane 5ES            1(0)         -     1(0)    -     
------------------------------------------------------------

Atlas 5 Details
-----------------------------------------------------------
Atlas 5-401           1(0)         -      -     1(0)
Atlas 5-411           1(0)         -     1(0)    -
Atlas 5-421            -           -      -      -
Atlas 5-431            -           -      -      -
Atlas 5-501            -           -      -      -  
Atlas 5-531            -           -      -      -
Atlas 5-541           1(0)         -     1(0)    -
Atlas 5-551           2(0)         -     2(0)    -  
-----------------------------------------------------------

Chang Zheng (Long March) Details
------------------------------------------------------------
CZ-2C(/SMA/YZ-1S)     5(0)        5(0)    -      -
CZ-2D                 5(0)        5(0)    -      -
CZ-2FY (M)             -           -      -      -
CZ-2FT                 -           -      -      - 
CZ-3A                 2(0)         -     2(0)    -
CZ-3B(/E)             1(0)         -     1(0)    -
CZ-3B/YZ-1            7(0)         -     7(0)    -
CZ-3C(/E)              -           -      -      -
CZ-3C/YZ-1             -           -      -      -
CZ-4B                 1(0)        1(0)    -      -
CZ-4C                 4(0)        3(0)   1(0)    -
 
CZ-5                   -           -      -      -
CZ-6                   -           -      -      -
CZ-7                   -           -      -      -

CZ-11                 2(0)        2(0)    -      - 
------------------------------------------------------------

Delta 2 Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Delta 2-7420          1(0)        1(0)    -      - 
Delta 2 7920           -           -      -      -
------------------------------------------------------------

Delta 4 Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Delta 4M               -           -      -      -
Delta 4M+4,2           -           -      -      -
Delta 4M+5,2          1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Delta 4M+5,4           -           -      -      -
Delta 4H              1(0)         -      -     1(0)
------------------------------------------------------------

Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Falcon 9 v1.2         8(0)        3(0)   5(0)    -
Falcon 9 v1.2(expend) 8(0)        5(0)   3(0)    -
Falcon Heavy          1(0)         -      -     1(0)
------------------------------------------------------------

H-2A/B Details
-------------------------------------------------------------
H-2A/202              2(0)        2(0)    -      -
H-2A/204               -           -      -      - 
H-2B/304              1(0)        1(0)    -      -
-------------------------------------------------------------

Proton Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Proton-M/Briz-M       1(0)         -     1(0)    -
Proton-K/DM-2          -           -      -      -  
Proton-M/DM-03         -           -      -      -
-------------------------------------------------------------

PSLV Details
------------------------------------------------------------
PSLV-G                 -           -      -      -     
PSLV-CA (Core Alone)  1(0)        1(0)    -      - 
PSLV-XL               2(0)        1(0)   1(0)    -
-------------------------------------------------------------
Soyuz/Molniya (R-7) Details 
-------------------------------------------------------------
Soyuz-U (Progress)     -           -      -      -
Soyuz-U (satellite)    -           -      -      - 
Soyuz-FG/Fregat        -           -      -      -
Soyuz-FG/Soyuz (M)    3(1)        3(1)    -      -
Soyuz-2-1a             -           -      -      -  
Soyuz-2-1a(Progress)  2(0)        2(0)    -      -
Soyuz-2-1a/Fregat     1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat     2(0)         -     2(0)    -
Soyuz-2-1a/Volga       -           -      -      -
Soyuz-2-1b             -           -      -      -
NK-33A Powered
Soyuz 2-1v/Volga       -           -      -      -
Soyuz 2-1v            1(0)        1(0)    -      -
------------------------------------------------------------

Zenit Details
-----------------------------------------------------------
Zenit 3SL/DMSL         -           -      -      -
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB       -           -      -      - 
Zenit 3F/Fregat SB     -           -      -      -
Zenit 2SB              -           -      -      - 
-----------------------------------------------------------

Launch Vehicle Site Summary 

=========================================================

          YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH SITE SUMMARY

Launch sites, ranked by number of year-to-date orbital 
launch attempts.

=========================================================
Site                           Overall    
                               Launches    
                              (Failures)   
=========================================================
Cape Canaveral, Florida         15(0)  
XiChang, China                  13(0)
Jiuquan, China                  10(0)
Vandenberg AFB, California       8(0)
Kourou, French Guyana            7(1)
Baikonur, Kazakhstan             6(1)
Taiyaun, China                   5(0)
Sriharikota, India               4(0)
Tanegashima, Japan               3(0)
Plesetsk, Russia                 3(0)
Kagoshima, Japan                 2(0)
Kennedy Space Center, FL         2(0)
Vostochny, Russia                1(0)
Wallops Island, Virgina          1(0)
Mahia, New Zealand               1(0)
Wenchang, China                   -
Sohae, North Korea                -
Palmachim, Israel                 -
Semnam, Iran                      -
Dombarovsky, Russia               -
Barking Sands, Hawaii             -
Odyssey LP, Pacific Ocean         -
Naro Space Center, South Korea    -
Kwajalein, RMI                    - 
Kodiak LC, Alaska                 - 
=========================================================
Launch Total by Country of First or Core Stage Manufacture
ranked by number of year-to-date orbital successes.
==========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
==========================================================
China                28(0)       17(0)  11(0)    -
United States        25(0)       10(0)  12(0)   3(0)
Russia               11(1)        8(1)   3(0)    -
Europe                6(1)        1(0)   4(1)   1(0)
Japan                 5(0)        5(0)    -      -
India                 4(0)        2(0)   2(0)    -
New Zealand           1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Ukraine               1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Israel                 -           -      -      - 
North Korea            -           -      -      -
Iran                   -           -      -      -
==========================================================

 

Launch Total by Country of Upper Stage Manufacture
ranked by number of year-to-date orbital successes.
==========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
==========================================================
China                28(0)       17(0)  11(0)    -
United States        26(0)       11(0)  12(0)   3(0)
Russia               11(1)        8(1)   3(0)    -
Europe                6(1)        1(0)   4(1)   1(0)
Japan                 5(0)        5(0)    -      -
India                 4(0)        2(0)   2(0)    -
New Zealand           1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Ukraine                -           -      -      -
Israel                 -           -      -      - 
North Korea            -           -      -      -
Iran                   -           -      -      -
==========================================================

                
   
     
 

Launch Vehicle by Success Rate 

                
================================================================
                    SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

        ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
================================================================
           by Ed Kyle      as of October 20, 2018      
================================================================
Top active space launch vehicles ranked by Lewis point estimate 
of their orbital success rate*.  Failures include incorrect 
orbits.================================================================ 
                           Lewis 
                Successes  Point AdjWald   Consc. Last    Dates 
Vehicle         /Attempts  Est*  95%CI*    Succes Fail    
================================================================
Falcon 9 v1.2     42/42(D) 0.98  0.90-1.00  42   None     2015-
Atlas 5           78/79    0.98  0.93-1.00  69   06/15/07 2002-
Delta 4M(+)       27/27    0.97  0.85-1.00  27   None     2002-
Soyuz-FG          54/55    0.96  0.89-1.00   0   10/11/18 2001-
Ariane 5-ECA      66/68    0.96  0.89-1.00   3   01/25/18 2002-
CZ-2D             39/40    0.95  0.86-1.00   8   12/28/16 1992-
H-2A              38/39    0.95  0.86-1.00  33   11/29/03 2001-
CZ-4(A/B/C)       55/57    0.95  0.87-1.00   7   08/31/16 1988-
CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM/YZ)51/53    0.95  0.87-1.00  17   08/18/11 1974-
CZ-3B/3C          62/65    0.94  0.87-0.99  10   06/18/17 1996-
CZ-2F(T/Y)        13/13    0.93  0.73-1.00  13   None     1999-
Vega              11/11xx  0.92  0.70-1.00  11   None     2012-
Minotaur 1        11/11    0.92  0.70-1.00  11   None     2000-
PSLV              41/44    0.91  0.81-0.98   3   08/31/17 1993-
CZ-3/3A           37/40    0.90  0.79-0.98  27   08/18/96 1984-
Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 18/19#   0.90  0.74-1.00  16   05/21/09 2006-
Rokot/Briz/K(M)   27/29    0.90  0.77-0.99  13   02/01/11 1994-
Soyuz 2-1b         8/8     0.90  0.63-1.00   8   None     2008-
Proton-M/Briz-M   85/94    0.90  0.83-0.95  12   10/21/14 2001-
Delta 4 Heavy      9/10    0.90  0.57-1.00   9   12/21/04 2004-
H-2B               7/7     0.89  0.60-1.00   7   None     2009-
Pegasus (H/XL)    38/43    0.88  0.75-0.95  29   11/04/96 1991-
Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 28/31    0.88  0.74-0.97   2   11/28/17 2006-
Soyuz 2-1a        13/14#   0.88  0.66-1.00   7   04/28/15 2004-
Minotaur 4/5       5/5++   0.86  0.51-1.00   5   None     2010-
Zenit 3F/FregSB    4/4     0.83  0.45-1.00   4   None     2011-
CZ-11              4/4     0.83  0.45-1.00   4   None     2015-
Kuaizhou 1(A)      4/4     0.83  0.45-1.00   4   None     2013-
GSLV Mk2           5/6     0.83  0.42-0.99   5   04/15/10 2001-
Strela             3/3     0.80  0.38-1.00   3   None     2003-
Epsilon            3/3     0.80  0.38-1.00   3   None     2013-
Antares 2xx        3/3     0.80  0.38-1.00   3   None     2016-
CZ-6               2/2     0.75  0.29-1.00   2   None     2015-
CZ-7               2/2     0.75  0.29-1.00   2   None     2016-
Shavit(-1,-2)      8/11    0.73  0.43-0.91   4   9/6/04   1988-
Taurus (XL)        7/10    0.70  0.39-0.90   1   3/4/11   1994-
Soyuz 2-1v/Volga   2/3     0.67  0.20-0.94   1   12/05/15 2013-
Falcon Heavy       1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2018-
Soyuz 2-1a/Volga   1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2016-
Angara A5          1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2014-
GSLV Mk3           1/1z    0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2017-
KT-2               1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2017-
Soyuz 2-1v         1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2018-
Safir              5/8(C)  0.63  0.30-0.87   1   09/02/12 2008-
Electron           1/2     0.50  0.09-0.91   1   05/25/17 2017-
SS-520             1/2     0.50  0.09-0.91   1   01/14/17 2017-
CZ-5               1/2     0.50  0.09-0.91   0   07/02/17 2016-
Unha (TD-2)        2/5%    0.44  0.12-0.77   2   04/12/12 2006-
Proton-M/DM-03     1/3     0.43  0.06-0.80   1   07/02/13 2010-
================================================================
* Lewis Point Estimate Determined as Follows.
  
  Maximum Liklihood Estimate (MLE)= x/n 
      where x=success, n=tries
  For MLE<=0.5, use Wilson Method = (x+2)/(n+4)
  For MLE Between 0.5 and 0.9, use MLE = x/n
  For MLE>=0.9, use Laplace Method = (x+1)/(n+2)
 
  Lewis, J. & Lauro, J., "Improving the Accuracy of Small-Sample 
   Estimates of Completion Rates", Journal of Usability Studies, 
   Issue 3, Vol. 1, May 2006, pp. 136-150.

* Adjusted-Wald 95% Confidence Interval Range Determined 
     as Follows.

     Pw = (x+1.9208)/(n+3.8416)

     CI = Pw +/- 1.96*sqrt[(Pw*(1-Pw))/(n+3.8416)]  
          (maximum range 1.00)
    
# Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test 
   flight performed in 2004.

++Does not include two successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite 
   flights in 2010-11.

x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that 
   resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying 
   launch vehicle on 9-26-1983.  Note that 10 additional 
   Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all 
   successful) are cataloged separately.

xx Does not include successful 2-11-15 suborbital flight with 
    IXV reentry demonstrator.

% Includes 2006 failure thought to be a two-stage suborbital 
   test launch attempt.

z Does not include successful inaugural suborbital test flight 
    on 12-18-14.

(C) Assumes that two unsuccessful, unreported Safir launch 
     attempts occurred during 2012.
 
(D) Does not include 09/01/16 explosion that destroyed F9-29 
     and AMOS 6 payload during propellant loading for prelaunch 
     hot fire test at CC 40 two days before planned launch.   


===============================================================
                    SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

        RETIRED LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
================================================================
           by Ed Kyle      
================================================================
Space launch vehicles retired since ~1980 ranked by their 
predicted orbital success rate*.  Failures include incorrect 
orbits.

            Ranked by Lewis Point Estimate
================================================================ 
                        Lewis 
              Successes Point  AdjWald  Consc. Last    Dates 
Vehicle       /Attempts Est*   95%CI*   Succes Fail    
================================================================
Atlas 2/2AS     63/63   0.98  0.93-1.00  63   None     1991-2004
Tsyklon 2      104/105  0.98  0.94-1.00  92   04/25/73 1967-2006
Delta 2        153/155  0.98  0.95-1.00 100   01/17/97 1989-2018
Soyuz-U        755/776x 0.97  0.96-0.98   1   12/01/16 1973-2017
STS            132/135  0.97  0.93-1.00  22(A)02/01/03 1981-2011
Ariane 4       113/116  0.97  0.92-0.99  74   12/11/94 1988-2003
Delta ELT       89/93   0.95  0.89-0.99   8   05/03/86 1972-1990
Titan 2         17/17#  0.95  0.78-1.00  17   None     1964-2003
Kosmos 3M      423/446  0.95  0.92-0.97  22   11/20/00 1964-2010
Molniya M      277/296  0.93  0.90-0.96   4   06/21/05 1963-2010
Proton-K/DM-2M  40/42   0.93  0.83-1.00   7   11/25/02 1994-2006
Tsyklon 3      114/122  0.93  0.87-0.97   1   12/24/04 1977-2009
Proton-K/DM-2  101/109  0.92  0.86-0.96  15   10/27/99 1982-2012
Scout D-G       33/35   0.92  0.80-0.99  23   12/06/75 1972-1994
Dnepr           21/22   0.92  0.76-1.00  15   07/26/06 1999-2015
Soyuz FG/Fregat 10/10   0.92  0.68-1.00  10   None     2003-2012
H-1              9/9    0.91  0.66-1.00   9   None     1986-1992
Ariane 5ES       8/8    0.90  0.63-1.00   8   None     2008-2018
Proton-K        26/29+  0.90  0.73-0.97   9   11/29/86 1968-2000
M-3             17/19   0.89  0.67-0.98   0   01/15/95 1974-1995
Zenit 3SL/DMSL  32/36   0.89  0.74-0.96   1   02/01/13 1999-2014
Falcon 9 v1.1   14/15   0.88  0.68-1.00   1   06/28/15 2013-2016
Titan 4B        15/17   0.88  0.64-0.98  12   04/30/99 1997-2005
Atlas E SUS     21/23   0.88  0.72-0.99  21   12/19/81 1980-1995
Ariane 5G(+,S)  22/25   0.88  0.68-0.97  15   07/12/01 1996-2009
Titan 4A        20/22   0.88  0.71-0.99   0   08/12/98 1989-1998
Atlas 3(A/B)     6/6    0.88  0.56-1.00   6   None     2000-2005
Soyuz-U/Ikar     6/6    0.88  0.56-1.00   6   None     1999-1999
Proton-M/DM-2    6/6    0.88  0.56-1.00   6   None     2007-2010
Proton-K/17S40   6/6    0.88  0.56-1.00   6   None     1997-2002
Atlas H SUS      5/5    0.86  0.51-1.00   5   None     1983-1987
Titan 2(Star)    6/7%   0.86  0.47-0.99   6   10/5/93  1964-2003
M-5              6/7    0.86  0.47-0.99   4   02/10/00 1997-2006
START(-1)        6/7    0.86  0.47-0.99   5   03/28/95 1993-2006
Soyuz-U/Fregat   4/4    0.83  0.45-1.00   4   None     2000-2000
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 5/6    0.83  0.42-0.99   5(B)04/28/08 2008-2015
Titan 34D       12/15   0.80  0.54-0.94   3   09/02/88 1982-1989
Falcon 9 v1.0    4/5    0.80  0.36-0.98   1   10/08/12 2010-2013
Antares 1xx      4/5    0.80  0.36-0.98   0   10/28/14 2013-2014
Zenit 2(M/SB)   30/38   0.79  0.63-0.89   7   09/09/98 1985-2015
Shitl'           2/2    0.75  0.29-1.00   2   None     1998-2006
Proton-K/Briz-M  3/4    0.75  0.29-0.97   3   07/05/99 1999-2003
Titan 3 Comm.    3/4    0.75  0.29-0.97   2   03/14/90 1990-1992
Atlas G/Centaur 13/18   0.72  0.49-0.88   4   03/25/93 1984-1997
H-2              5/7    0.71  0.35-0.92   0   11/15/99 1994-1999
Falcon 1         2/5    0.44  0.12-0.77   2   08/03/08 2006-2009
KSLV-1 (Angara)  1/3    0.43  0.06-0.80   1   06/10/10 2009-2013
Delta 3          1/3    0.43  0.06-0.80   1   05/05/99 1998-2000
GSLV Mk1         2/6    0.40  0.09-0.70   0   12/25/10 2001-2010
Super Strypi     0/1    0.40  0.00-0.83   0   11/04/15 2015-2015
Volna            0/1    0.40  0.00-0.83   0   06/21/05 2005-2005
Conestoga        0/1    0.40  0.00-0.83   0   10/23/95 1995-1995
VLS-1            0/2    0.33  0.00-0.71   0(E)12/11/99 1997-1999
================================================================ 
* Lewis Point Estimate Determined as Follows.
  
  Maximum Liklihood Estimate (MLE)= x/n 
      where x=success, n=tries
  For MLE<=0.5, use Wilson Method = (x+2)/(n+4)
  For MLE between 0.5 and 0.9, use MLE = x/n
  For MLE>=0.9, use Laplace Method = (x+1)/(n+2)
 
  Lewis, J. & Lauro, J., "Improving the Accuracy of Small-Sample 
   Estimates of Completion Rates", Journal of Usability Studies, 
   Issue 3, Vol. 1, May 2006, pp. 136-150.

* Adjusted-Wald 95% Confidence Interval Range Determined 
     as Follows.

     Pw = (x+1.9208)/(n+3.8416)

     CI = Pw +/- 1.96*sqrt[(Pw*(1-Pw))/(n+3.8416)]  
          (maximum range 1.00)

# Includes 11 orbital Gemini Titan 2 and 6 Titan 23G missions.

% Seven Titan 23G flights that flew suborbital profiles with 
  Star 37 solid rocket motors providing the final orbital 
  velocity increment.  The single failure listed here involved 
  the Star 37 stage. 
 
+ Does not include one successful suborbital Proton-K test 
   flight performed in 1970.

 x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that 
   resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying 
   launch vehicle on 9-26-1983.  Note that 10 additional 
   Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all 
   successful) are cataloged separately.
 
(A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of 
    damage suffered during launch phase.

(B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and 
    0.7 deg unplanned inclination.  Amos 3 reportedly lost two 
    to three years of 18 year design life.

(E) Does not include 08/22/03 pre-launch pad explosion that 
    killed 21 during T-3 day launch preps.

 2018 SPACE LAUNCH LOG

=========================================================================
                         SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

                 2018 ORBITAL/SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG
=========================================================================
                 by Ed Kyle      as of October 20, 2018    
=========================================================================

                YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL SPACE LAUNCH LOG

DATE     VEHICLE           ID      PAYLOAD                 MASS(t) SITE*     ORBIT**
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01/08/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-46   Zuma                            CC 40     LEO?[1]
01/09/18 CZ-2D             Y40     Gaojing-1 3/4                   TY 9      LEO/S
01/11/18 CZ-3B/YZ-1        Y45/Y5  Beidou 3M 03/04        ~2.08    XC 2      MEO
01/12/18 PSLV-XL           C40     Cartosat 2F/usats       1.313   SR 1      LEO/S
01/12/18 Delta 4M+5,2      D379    NROL 47                ~6.0     VA 6      LEO/R
01/13/18 CZ-2D             Y49     LKW 3                           JQ 43/603 LEO/S
01/17/18 Ehanced Epsilon   E03     ASNARO 2                0.57    KA M5     LEO/S
01/19/18 CZ-11             03      Jilin-1 7/8                     JQ CZ11   LEO/S
01/20/18 Atlas 5-411       AV076   SBIRS GEO 4             4.54    CC 41     GTO
01/21/18 Electron          02      Still Testing           0.013   MA 1      LEO
01/25/18 CZ-2C             Y36     Yaogan-30 Group 04              XC 3      LEO
01/25/18 Ariane 5 ECA      L5101   VA241/SES 14/Al Yah 3   8.218   KO 3     [EEO][2]
01/31/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-49   Govsat 1                4.230   CC 40     GTO [3]
02/01/18 Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 1880    Kanopus V3,4                    VO 1S     LEO/S
02/02/18 CZ-2D             Y13     CSES 1                  0.75    JQ 43/603 LEO/S
02/03/18 SS-520            520-5   Tricom 1R               0.003   KA KS     LEO
02/06/18 Falcon Heavy      FH-1    Demo Mission                    KC 39A    HCO
02/12/18 CZ-3B/YZ-1        Y47/Y6  Beidou 3M 3/4          ~2.08    XC 2      MEO
02/13/18 Soyuz 2-1a        1881    Progress MS-08         ~7.28    TB 31/6   LEO/ISS
02/22/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-50   Paz/Microsat 2a/b      ~2.000   VA 4E     LEO/S [3]
02/27/18 H-2A              F38     IGS Optical 6                   TA Y1     LEO/S
03/01/18 Atlas 5-541       AV077   GOES S                  5.2     CC 41     GTO+
03/06/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-51   Hispasat 30W-6          6.092   CC 40     GTO- [3]
03/09/18 Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat VS18    O3b F4                  2.8     KO ELS    MEO
03/17/18 CZ-2D             Y50     LKW 4                           JQ 43/603 LEO/S
03/21/18 Soyuz FG          1882    Soyuz MS-08            ~7.2     TB 1/5    LEO/ISS
03/29/18 GSLV Mk2          F08     GSAT 6A                 2.14    SR 2      GTO
03/29/18 Soyuz 2-1v        004     Kosmos 2525            ~0.2     PL 43/4   LEO
03/29/18 CZ-3B/YZ-1        Y48/Y7  Beidou 3 M9/10          2.028   XC 2      MEO
03/30/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-52   Iridium Next 5          8.6     VA 4E     LEO [4]
03/31/18 CZ-4C             Y26     Gaofen 1-2/3/4          2.415   TY 9      LEO/S
04/02/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-53   Dragon 10.2/CRS-14     ~8.125   CC 40     LEO/ISS[5]
04/05/18 Ariane 5 ECA      VA242   DSN 1/Hylas 4           9.398   KO 3      GTO
04/10/18 CZ-4C             Y25     Yaogan 31-1                     JQ 43/603 LEO
04/11/18 PSLV-XL           C41     IRNSS 1I                1.425   SR 1      GTO-
04/14/18 Atlas 5-551       AV079   AFSPC 11                        CC 41     GEO 
04/18/18 Proton M Briz M           Blagovest 12L                   TB 81/24  GEO 
04/18/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-54   TESS                    0.35    CC 40     EEO [6]
04/25/18 Rokot/Briz KM     28      Sentinel 3B             1.150   PL 133/3  LEO/S 
04/26/18 CZ-11             Y4      Zhuhai 1 + 4usats               JZ CZ11   LEO/S
05/03/18 CZ-3B/E           Y55     APStar 6C                       XC 2      GTO
05/05/18 Atlas 5-401       AV078   InSight                 0.694   VA 3E     HCO [7]
05/08/18 CZ-4C             Y20     Gaofen 5                        TY 9      LEO/S
05/11/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-55   Bangabandhu 1          ~3.72    KC 39A    GTO [8]
05/20/18 CZ-4C             Y27     Queqiao                 0.515   XC 3      EEO [9]
05/21/18 Antares 230       A6      Cygnus OA-9             6.173   WI 0A     LEO/ISS
05/22/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-56   Iridium 6/GRACE-FO     ~5.5     VA 4E     LEO [4]
06/02/18 CZ-2D             Y20     Gaofen 6                1.064   JQ 43/603 LEO/S
06/04/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-57   SES 12                  5.384   CC 40     GTO+[5]
06/05/18 CZ-3A             Y25     Fengyun 2H             ~1.4     XC 2      GTO
06/06/18 Soyuz FG          1883    Soyuz MS-09            ~7.2     TB 1/5    LEO/ISS
06/12/18 H-2A-202          F39     IGS Radar 6                     TA Y1     LEO/S
06/16/18 Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 1884    Glonass M 47            1.415   PL 43/3   MEO
06/27/18 CZ-2C             Y44     XJS A/B                         XC 3      LEO
06/29/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-58   Dragon 11.2/CRS 15     ~8.175   CC 40     LEO/ISS[5]
07/09/18 CZ-2C/SMA         Y3      PRSS 1/PakTES 1A        1.485   JQ 43/603 LEO/S
07/09/18 CZ-3A             Y27     Beidou 2 I7                     XC 2      GTO/i
07/09/18 Soyuz 2.1a        1885    Progress MS-09         ~7.28    TB 31/6   LEO/ISS[10]
07/22/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-59   Telstar 19V             7.075   CC 40     GTO-[6]
07/25/18 Ariane 5 ES       VA244   Galileo 23-26           2.952   KO 3      MEO
07/25/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-60   Iridium Next 7          8.6     VA 4E     LEO
07/29/18 CZ-3B/YZ-1        Y49/Y8  Beidou 3M 5/6           2.028   XC 3      MEO
07/31/18 CZ-4B             Y37     Gaofen 11                       TY 9      LEO/S
08/07/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-61   Merah Putih             5.8     CC 40     GTO-[6]
08/12/18 Delta 4H/Star 48  D380    Parker Solar Probe      0.685   CC 37B    HCO
08/22/18 Vega              VV12    ADM-Aeolus              1.357   KO ZLV    LEO/S
08/24/18 CZ-3B/YZ-1        Y50     Beidou 3 M11/12         2.028   XC 3      MEO
09/07/18 CZ-2C             Y39     Haiyang 1C              0.442   TY 9      LEO/S
09/10/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-62   Telstar 18V             7.06    CC 40     GTO-[6]
09/15/18 Delta 2-7420      D381    ICESat 2                1.515   VA 2W     LEO/S[11]
09/16/18 PSLV-CA           C42     NovaSAR-S/SSTL-S1       0.889   SR 1      LEO/S
09/19/18 CZ-3B/YZ-1                Beidou M13/M14          2.028   XC 2      MEO
09/22/18 H-2B-304          F7      HTV-7                  16.5     TA Y2     LEO/ISS
09/25/18 Ariane 5 ECA      L5103   VA243/Horz 3e/Azersp 2  9.911   KO 3      GTO
09/29/18 KZ-1A             Y8      CentiSpace 1-S1         0.97    JQ        LEO/S
10/08/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-63   SAOCOM 1A               3.0     VA 4E     LEO/S[12]
10/09/18 CZ-2C/YZ-1S               Yaogan 32-1                     JQ 43/603 LEO/S[13]
10/11/18 Soyuz FG          1886    Soyuz MS-10            ~7.2     TB 1/5   [FTO][14]
10/15/18 CZ-3B/YZ-1                Beidou 3M 15/16         2.028   XC 3      MEO
10/17/18 Atlas 5-551       AV073   AEHF 4                  6.168   CC 41     GTO+
10/20/18 Ariane 5 ECA              VA245/BepiColombo       4.080   KO 3      HCO
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] First stage B1043 landed LZ-1. Zuma reported lost due possible separation 
     failure so reentered with 2nd stage when it was deorbited.
[2] Telemetry lost at Stg 2 ignition.  Orbits had low apogee and 20 deg inclination
     rather than planned 3 deg.
[3] Both stages expended.  One half of fairing recovered from ocean landing 
     during Paz launch experiment.
[4] Falcon 9 expended.  Fairing recovery attempt failed.
[5] Falcon 9 expended.
[6] Stg 1 Landed OSCILY
[7] Mars Lander.  1st HCO from VAFB.
[8] 1st Block 5.  B1046 Stg 1 landed OSCILY.
[9] 200 x 400,000 km transfer for ultimate EM L2 halo orbit.  Data relay for 
      upcoming Chang'e 4 mission.
[10] 1st 2.5-orbit fast track ascent to ISS docking.
[11] Delta 2/Thor Finale
[12] 1st RTLS to LZ 4 (B1048.2)
[13] 1st YZ-1S
[14] Booster failure around time of staging.  Crew survived ballistic abort.
 ==================================================================================

2018 Major Suborbital Log 

         
      2018 MAJOR SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG 
      Suborbital Launches Using Booster Hardware Also Used 
      for Orbital Launches
==================================================================================

DATE     VEHICLE          ID      PAYLOAD                MASS(t) SITE*    ORBIT**
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
04/25/18 Minuteman 3      GT226GM Operational Test               VA LF10  SUB
05/14/18 Minuteman 3      GT224GM Operational Test               VA LF04  SUB
05/22/18 Bulava           29      Operational Test               WH       SUB [1]
05/22/18 Bulava           30      Operational Test               WH       SUB [1]
05/22/18 Bulava           31      Operational Test               WH       SUB [1]
05/22/18 Bulava           32      Operational Test               WH       SUB [1]
06/19/18 Yars                     ICBM Test                      PL       SUB [3]
07/31/18 Minuteman 3      GT225GM Operational Test               VA LF09 [FSO][2]
10/11/18 SLBM Salvo               Operational Test               BA       SUB [4]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Salvo launch from SSBN Yuri Dolgorukiy from White Sea to Kamchatka, Kura Range.
[2] Failed at 11:42 UTC, shortly after launch.  1st MM3 failure since 2011. 
[3] Launched between 6/19 and 6/23.  Unannounced.  Result unknown. 
[4] Salvo launch.  Details TBD.
=================================================================================
*Site Code:

BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
BS = Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii
CC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA 
DO = Dombarovsky, Russia 
FLP = First Launch Pad
JQ = Ji Quan, China 
KA = Kagoshima, Japan 
KC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA
KO = Kourou, French Guyana
KW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.
KY = Kapustin Yar, Russia
MA = Mahia Peninsula, New Zealand
ME = Meck Island, Kwajalein Atoll, RMI
MU = Musudan-ri North Korea
NA = Naro Space Center, South Korea
NP = North Pole Submarine Launch
OK = Sea of Okhotsk
OLP = Odyssey Launch Platform
PA = Palamchima, Isreal 
PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, Russia
PO = Pacific Ocean (154W-0N for Sea Launch)
SE = Semnan, Iran in Dasht-e-Kavir Desert
SO = Sohae Satellite Launching Center, Tongchang-ri, North Korea
SR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, India
SLP = Second Launch Pad
TA = Tanageshima, Japan 
TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, Kazakstahn
TY = Taiyuan, China 
WC = Wenchang, China
WH = White Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
WI = Wallops Island 
XC = Xi Chang, China 
VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USA
VO = Vostochny, Russia
YO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad

**Orbit Code:

EEO = Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/T = Tundra (24-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
FTO = Failed to Orbit
FSO = Failed Suborbital
GTO = Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO+ = Supersynchronous or High Perigee Transfer Orbit
GTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTOi = Inclined GTO
GEO = Geosynchronous Orbit
HCO = Heliocentric (solar) Orbit
HTO = High Earth Transfer Orbit
LEO = Low Earth Orbit
LEO/E = Equatorial LEO
LEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth Orbit
LEO/P = Polar Low Earth Orbit
LEO/R = Retrograde Low Earth Orbit
MEO = Medium Earth Orbit
MTO = Medium Earth Transfer Orbit 
SUB = Suborbital
=========================================================================

 

Space Launch Forecast 

========================================================================
                       SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

               ON THE PAD:  SPACE LAUNCH FORECAST
=========================================================================
                by Ed Kyle      as of October 20, 2018
=========================================================================
This space launch forecast, like all such space launch schedules, 
should not be considered anything but a vague long-term forecast. The 
dates, sequence, and even the total number of launches, can and almost 
certainly will be altered as time passes. (Predicting launch dates is 
much like trying to predict the weather months in advance.)

==================================================================================
DATE     VEHICLE           ID     PAYLOAD                 MASS(t) SITE*     ORBIT**
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/--/18 PSLV              C43    HySIS                           SR        LEO/S
10/--/18 GSLV Mk 3         D2     GSAT 29                         SR        GTO
10/--/18 Pegasus XL               ICON                            CC L1011  LEO
10/--/18 CZ 2C                    CFOSAT                          JQ        LEO/S
10/--/18 H-2A                     GOSAT 2/KhalifaSAt              TA        LEO/S
10/--/18 Soyuz 2.1                Progress                        TB        LEO/ISS

--/--/18 Delta 4H          D382   NROL 71                         VA 6      ???
--/--/18 CZ-11                    Zhuhai 1                        JQ CZ11   LEO/S            
--/--/18 Electron/Curie           3xmicrosats                     MA 1      LEO    		  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


*Site Code:

BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
BS = Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii
CC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA  
DO = Dombarovsky, Russia
FLP = First Launch Pad
GO = Goheung (Naro), South Korea
JQ = Ji Quan, China 
KA = Kagoshima, Japan 
KO = Kourou, French Guyana
KC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA
KD = Kodiak, Alaska
KW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.
MA - Mahia, New Zealand
MU = Musudan-ri, North Korea
OLP = Odyssey Launch Platform
PA = Palamchima, Isreal 
PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, Russia
PO = Pacific Ocean Range 154W-0N 
SE = Semnan, Iran in Dasht-e-Kavir Desert
SO = Sohae Satellite Launching Center, Tongchang-ri, North Korea
SR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, India
SLP = Second Launch Pad
SV = Svobodny Cosmodrome, Russia
TA = Tanageshima, Japan 
TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, Kazakstahn
TY = Taiyuan, China
WC = Wenchang, China 
WI = Wallops Island 
XC = Xi Chang, China 
VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USA
YO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad


**Orbit Code:

EEO = Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/T = Tundra (24-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
FTO = Failed to Orbit
FSO = Failed Suborbital
GTO = Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO+ = Supersynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer Orbit
GEO = Geosynchronous Orbit
HCO = Heliocentric (solar) Orbit
HTO = High Earth Transfer Orbit
LEO = Low Earth Orbit
LEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth Orbit
LEO/P = Polar Low Earth Orbit
MEO = Medium Earth Orbit
MTO = Medium Earth Transfer Orbit
SUB = Suborbital 

=========================================================================