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2011 Space Launch Report Updated February 14, 2012 2012 Launch Vehicle Standings Left: China's CZ4B-16 was first to fly in 2012. Chang Zheng (Long March) is currently the world's most oft-flown orbital launcher family. |
2012 LAUNCH STATS ========================================================
SPACE LAUNCH REPORT
2011 LAUNCH VEHICLE/SITE STATISTICS
========================================================
by Ed Kyle as of February 14, 2012
========================================================
YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY
Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number
of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker
and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker.
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods
less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include
heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape
trajectories.
=========================================================
Vehicle Overall By Orbit Type
Launches Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
(Failures) LEO >LEO Deep Space
=========================================================
CZ 2(0) 1(0) 1(0) -
Proton 1(0) - 1(0) -
Delta 4 1(0) - 1(0) -
R-7 1(0) 1(0) - -
Vega 1(0) 1(0) - -
Safir 1(0) 1(0) - -
Ariane 5 - - - -
Atlas 5 - - - -
Zenit - - - -
PSLV - - - -
H-2A - - - -
Minotaur 1 - - - -
H-2B - - - -
Dnepr - - - -
Minotaur 4+ - - - -
Rokot/Briz KM - - - -
---------------------------------------------------------
Total 7(0) 4(0) 3(0) -
Ariane 5 Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Ariane 5ECA - - - -
Ariane 5ES - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------
Atlas 5 Details
-----------------------------------------------------------
Atlas 5-401 - - - -
Atlas 5-411 - - - -
Atlas 5-421 - - - -
Atlas 5-431 - - - -
Atlas 5-501 - - - -
Atlas 5-531 - - - -
Atlas 5-541 - - - -
Atlas 5-551 - - - -
-----------------------------------------------------------
Chang Zheng (Long March) Details
------------------------------------------------------------
CZ-2C - - - -
CZ-2D - - - -
CZ-2F (UM) - - - -
CZ-2FT1 - - - -
CZ-3A 1(0) - 1(0) -
CZ-3B - - - -
CZ-3C - - - -
CZ-4B 1(0) 1(0) - -
CZ-4C - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------
Delta 4 Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Delta 4M - - - -
Delta 4M+4,2 - - - -
Delta 4M+5,4 1(0) - 1(0) -
Delta 4H - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------
H-2A/B Details
-------------------------------------------------------------
H-2A/2022 - - - -
H-2A/2024 - - - -
H-2A/202 - - - -
H-2A/204 - - - -
H-2B/304 - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------
Proton Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Proton-M/Briz-M 1(0) - 1(0) -
Proton-M/DM-2 - - - -
Proton-M/DM-03 - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------
PSLV Details
------------------------------------------------------------
PSLV-C - - - -
PSLV-CA (Core Alone) - - - -
PSLV-XL-C - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------
Soyuz/Molniya (R-7) Details
-------------------------------------------------------------
Soyuz-U (Progress) 1(0) 1(0) - -
Soyuz-U (Kosmos) - - - -
Soyuz-FG/Fregat - - - -
Soyuz-FG/Soyuz (M) - - - -
Soyuz-2-1a/Fregat - - - -
Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------
Zenit Details
-----------------------------------------------------------
Zenit 3SL/DMSL - - - -
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB - - - -
Zenit 3F/Fregat SB - - - -
Zenit 2SB - - - -
-----------------------------------------------------------
=========================================================
YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH SITE SUMMARY
Launch sites, ranked by number of year-to-date orbital
launch attempts.
=========================================================
Site Overall
Launches
(Failures)
=========================================================
Baikonur, Kazakhstan 2(0)
XiChang, China 1(0)
Cape Canaveral, Florida 1(0)
Kourou, French Guyana 1(0)
Taiyaun, China 1(0)
Semnam, Iran 1(0)
Vandenberg AFB, California
Jiuquan, China
Plesetsk, Russia
Tanegashima, Japan
Sriharikota, India
Odyssey LP, Pacific Ocean
Wallops Island, Virgina
Dombarovsky, Russia
Kodiak LC, Alaska
Palmachim, Israel
Naro Space Center, South Korea
=========================================================
Launch Vehicle by Success Rate ================================================================
SPACE LAUNCH REPORT
ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
================================================================
by Ed Kyle as of February 14, 2012
================================================================
Top active space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted
orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits.
================================================================
Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates
Rate Rate* Succes Fail
================================================================
Soyuz-U 738 758x .97 .97 2 8/24/11 1973-
Soyuz-FG 28 28 1.00 .97 28 None 2001-
CZ-4(A/B/C) 26 26 1.00 .96 26 None 1988-
Kosmos 3M 423 446 .95 .95 22 11/20/00 1964-
Ariane 5-ECA 32 33 .97 .94 32 12/11/02 2002-
CZ-2D 15 15 1.00 .94 15 None 1993-
Atlas 5 27 28 .96 .93 18 6/15/07 2002-
Delta 4M(+) 13 13 1.00 .93 13 None 2002-
CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM) 35 37 .95 .92 1 08/18/11 1974-
Proton-K/DM-2 100 108 .93 .92 14 10/27/99 1982-
Minotaur 1 10 10 1.00 .92 10 None 2000-
CZ-2F(T1) 9 9 1.00 .91 9 None 1999-
Soyuz FG/Fregat 9 9 1.00 .91 9 None 2003-
H-2A 19 20 .95 .91 14 11/29/03 2001-
Proton-M/Briz-M 49 53 .92 .91 7 08/17/11 2001-
Dnepr 16 17 .94 .89 10 7/26/06 1999-
CZ-3/3A 33 36 .92 .89 23 8/18/96 1984-
CZ-3B/3C 23 25 .92 .89 11 8/31/09 1996-
Proton-M/DM-2 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 2007-
Proton-K/17S40 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1997-
Zenit 3SL/DMSL 28 31 .90 .88 7 1/30/07 1999-
Proton-K 26 29+ .90 .87 9 11/29/86 1968-
PSLV 18 20 .90 .86 16 9/29/97 1993-
Pegasus (H/XL) 35 40 .88 .86 26 11/4/96 1991-
Soyuz-U/Fregat 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2000-
Rokot/Briz/K(M) 14 16 .88 .83 0 02/01/11 1994-
Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 8 9# .89 .82 6 5/21/09 2006-
Minotaur 4(+) 3 3++ 1.00 .80 3 None 2010-
Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 6 7 .86 .78 0 12/23/11 2006-
Zenit 2(M/SB) 30 38 .78 .77 7 9/9/98 1985-
Ariane 5ES 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2008-
H-2B 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2009-
Zenit 3F/FregatSB 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2011-
Falcon 9 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2010-
Shtil' 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 1998-
Delta IV-H 4 5 .80 .71 4 12/21/04 2004-
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 4 5 .80 .71 4(B) 4/28/08 2008-
Soyuz 2-1b 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2008-
Vega 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2012-
Safir 3 4 .75 .67 3 8/16/08 2008-
Shavit(-1,-2) 6 9 .67 .64 2 9/6/04 1988-
Taurus (XL) 6 9 .67 .64 0 3/4/11 1994-
GSLV 2 7 .29 .33 0 12/25/10 2001-
Proton-M/DM-03 0 1 .00 .33 0 12/5/10 2010-
Volna 0 1 .00 .33 0 6/21/05 2005-
KSLV-1 (Angara) 0 2 .00 .25 0 6/10/10 2009-
Unha 2 (TD-2) 0 2 .00 .25 0 4/5/09 2006-
================================================================
* First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted probability
of success for next launch attempt (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the
number of successful events and n is the number of trials.
# Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test
flight performed in 2004.
+ Does not include one successful suborbital Proton-K test flight
performed in 1970.
++Does not include two successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite
flights in 2010-11.
x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that
resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying
launch vehicle on 9-26-1983. Note that 10 additional
Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all
successful) are cataloged separately.
(A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of
damage suffered during launch phase.
(B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and
0.7 deg unplanned inclination. Amos 3 reportedly lost two
to three years of 18 year design life.
================================================================
===============================================================
SPACE LAUNCH REPORT
RECENTLY RETIRED LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
================================================================
by Ed Kyle
================================================================
Recently retired space launch vehicles ranked by
their predicted orbital success rate*. Failures include
incorrect orbits.
================================================================
Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates
Rate Rate* Succes Fail
================================================================
Atlas 2/2AS 63 63 1.00 .98 63 None 1991-2004
Tsyklon 2 104 105 .99 .98 92 4/25/73 1967-2006
Delta 2 149 151 .99 .98 96 1/17/97 1989-2011
STS 132 135 .98 .97 22(A) 2/1/03 1981-2011
Ariane 4 113 116 .97 .97 74 12/11/94 1988-2003
Titan 2 17 17# 1.00 .95 17 None 1964-2003
Molniya M 277 296 .94 .93 4 6/21/05 1963-2010
Proton-K/DM-2M 40 42 .95 .93 7 11/25/02 1994-2006
Tsyklon 3 114 122 .93 .93 1 12/24/04 1977-2009
Atlas 3(A/B) 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 2000-2005
Soyuz-U/Ikar 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1999-1999
Ariane 5G(+,S) 22 25 .88 .85 15 7/12/01 1996-2009
Titan 4B 15 17 .88 .84 12 4/30/99 1997-2005
Titan 2(Star) 6 7% .86 .78 6 10/5/93 1964-2003
M-5 6 7 .86 .78 4 2/10/00 1997-2006
START(-1) 6 7 .86 .78 5 3/28/95 1993-2006
Proton-K/Briz-M 3 4 .75 .67 3 7/5/99 1999-2003
Falcon 1 2 5 .40 .43 2 8/3/08 2006-2009
================================================================
#Includes 11 orbital Gemini Titan 2 and 6 Titan 23G missions.
%Seven Titan 23G flights that flew suborbital profiles with
Star 37 solid rocket motors providing the final orbital velocity
increment. The single failure listed here involved the Star 37
stage.
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2012 SPACE LAUNCH LOG
=========================================================================
SPACE LAUNCH REPORT
2012 ORBITAL/SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG
=========================================================================
by Ed Kyle as of February 14, 2012
=========================================================================
YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL SPACE LAUNCH LOG
DATE VEHICLE ID PAYLOAD MASS(t) SITE* ORBIT**
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01/09/12 CZ-4B CZ4B16 Ziyuan 3 2.65 TY 2 LEO/S
01/13/12 CZ-3A CZ3A23 Fengyun 2-07(F) XC 3 GTO
01/20/12 Delta 4M+5,4 D358 WGS 4 5.988 CC 37B GTO+
01/25/12 Soyuz U 1785 Progress (P46) 7.2 TB 1/5 LEO/ISS
02/03/12 Safir ERS2002 Navid-e Elm-o Sanat 0.05 SE LEO
02/13/12 Vega VV01 LARES/ALMAsat 0.42 KO ZLV LEO
02/14/12 Proton M/Briz M P373 SES 4 6.18 TB 200/39 GTO
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
==================================================================================
2012 MAJOR SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG
Suborbital Launches Using Booster Hardware Also Used
for Orbital Launches
==================================================================================
DATE VEHICLE ID PAYLOAD MASS(t) SITE* ORBIT**
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
xx/xx/xx NNN NNN NNN NN NNN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
=================================================================================
*Site Code:
BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
CC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA
DO = Dombarovsky, Russia
FLP = First Launch Pad
JQ = Ji Quan, China
KA = Kagoshima, Japan
KC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA
KO = Kourou, French Guyana
KW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.
KY = Kapustin Yar, Russia
ME = Meck Island, Kwajalein Atoll, RMI
MU = Musudan-ri North Korea
NA = Naro Space Center, South Korea
NP = North Pole Submarine Launch
OK = Sea of Okhotsk
OLP = Odyssey Launch Platform
PA = Palamchima, Isreal
PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, Russia
PO = Pacific Ocean (154W-0N for Sea Launch)
SE = Semnan, Iran in Dasht-e-Kavir Desert
SR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, India
SLP = Second Launch Pad
TA = Tanageshima, Japan
TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, Kazakstahn
TY = Taiyuan, China
WH = White Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
WI = Wallops Island
XC = Xi Chang, China
VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USA
YO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad
**Orbit Code:
EEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
FTO = Failed to Orbit
FSO = Failed Suborbital
GTO = Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO+ = Supersynchronous or High Perigee Transfer Orbit
GTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTOi = Inclined GTO
GEO = Geosynchronous Orbit
HCO = Heliocentric (solar) Orbit
HTO = High Earth Transfer Orbit
LEO = Low Earth Orbit
LEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth Orbit
LEO/P = Polar Low Earth Orbit
MEO = Medium Earth Orbit
MTO = Medium Earth Transfer Orbit
SUB = Suborbital
=========================================================================
========================================================================
SPACE LAUNCH REPORT
ON THE PAD: SPACE LAUNCH FORECAST
========================================================================
by Ed Kyle as of February 14, 2012
=========================================================================
This space launch forecast, like all such space launch schedules,
should not be considered anything but a vague long-term forecast. The
dates, sequence, and even the total number of launches, can and almost
certainly will be altered as time passes. (Predicting launch dates is
much like trying to predict the weather months in advance.)
==================================================================================
DATE VEHICLE ID PAYLOAD MASS(t) SITE* ORBIT**
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
02/--/12 Atlas 5-551 AC030 MUOS 1 6.8 CC 41 GTO
02/--/12 CZ-3C Beidou XC GTO
03/--/12 Proton M/Briz M P374 Sirius FM6 TB GTO
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Site Code:
BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
CC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA
DO = Dombarovsky, Russia
FLP = First Launch Pad
GO = Goheung (Naro), South Korea
JQ = Ji Quan, China
KA = Kagoshima, Japan
KO = Kourou, French Guyana
KC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA
KD = Kodiak, Alaska
KW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.
MU = Musudan-ri, North Korea
OLP = Odyssey Launch Platform
PA = Palamchima, Isreal
PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, Russia
PO = Pacific Ocean Range 154W-0N
SR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, India
SLP = Second Launch Pad
SV = Svobodny Cosmodrome, Russia
TA = Tanageshima, Japan
TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, Kazakstahn
TY = Taiyuan, China
WI = Wallops Island
XC = Xi Chang, China
VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USA
YO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad
**Orbit Code:
EEO = Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
FTO = Failed to Orbit
FSO = Failed Suborbital
GTO = Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO+ = Supersynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer Orbit
GEO = Geosynchronous Orbit
HCO = Heliocentric (solar) Orbit
HTO = High Earth Transfer Orbit
LEO = Low Earth Orbit
LEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth Orbit
LEO/P = Polar Low Earth Orbit
MEO = Medium Earth Orbit
MTO = Medium Earth Transfer Orbit
SUB = Suborbital
=========================================================================
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